NYT on iPod/iTunes Sales - Lies, Darn lies, and Statistics

Posted by Adrian Kingsley-Hughes

The other day the New York Times published a short article which attempted to draw some conclusions about iPod and iTunes sales based on a report published by Forrester Research. Instead of coming to any sensible conclusion, all the article did was highlight a total lack of statistical understanding at the NYT. I'll save you having to read the article (even though it's only about 150 words long) by summarizing it for you:

67.4 million iPods sold as of Sept 06, 22 songs sold for every iPod sold, therefore iPods sales are not driving iTunes sales.

The flawed logic here is clear - 67.4 million iPods sold does not equate to 67.4 million iPods still in use. Far from it. Over the last four years a huge number of iPods will have been lost, stolen, damaged or just plain broken. You could come to a similar flawed conclusion by looking at the numbers of cars sold since 2000 and the volume of gasoline sold. You come up with a number, but it's a meaningless one.
Another factor that the article failed to point out is that iPods are available in countries where the iTunes store is not available. This is going to skew the numbers by a fair amount. In addition, the article fails to address the fact that one family or household might own more and one iPod yet share a single iTunes account.
We must not forget too about the iPod user's existing music and media libraries too. People will have music they've ripped that they can transfer onto the iPod. MP3 players have been around for some time now. I ripped my entire CD collection to hard disk back in 1999 (between Christmas and the New Year - I remember it well!) and while I've bought and ripped CDs since then, my music library hasn't grown significantly since then (on the other hand, my Audible.com library has grown about fifty-fold in that time). Bottom line is that iTunes was meant to drive iPod sales, not the other way around.
I think that the Apple iPod/iTunes model is an interesting one. While some people see through it and just see high-priced, DRMed, low-quality audio, others see it as a cheap, convenient way to buy the music they want. In that respect, iTunes is a handy service for some iPod owners. For those that regularly buy music from iTunes, they quickly hit a point where the value of the music library is greater than that of a new iPod and switching is not an option - Apple now has a customer for life.
The fact is that iTunes was never mean to supply all the music fodder that iPod owners wanted. It's crazy to think like that. Assuming that the average track is about 4MB, an 80GB iPod can hold 20,000 tracks, and at 99 cents each that means big bucks. Even a 2GB nano can hold about $495 worth of tunes.

iPod Fans Find Lots to Crow About

Source: Daily Telegraph
FANS of Apple Computer's portable music players will find the new, video-capable models of the iPod and its miniature counterpart, the Nano, clearly worth the wait.
As with previous iPods, the Nano now comes in a variety of storage capacities and colours, not just silver and black. There's green, blue, pink and red, each holding 4 gigabytes of music, or roughly 1,000 songs. Silver is available in 2 GB and 4 GB configurations, and the black model holds 8 GB.
The first thing to notice about the new Nano is that it's tiny. Even tinier than the first-generation models. It's so discreet, slim and light, at 40 grams, that you'll want to check your pants pockets for it twice before putting them in the laundry.
Owners of first-generation Nanos will be happy to see that Apple has done away with the device's shiny metal backing, which was notorious for scratching up almost as soon as it was out of the box. Now an elegant, seamless aluminium enclosure wraps around the Nano. The battery life of the Nano is impressive. Apple rates it at 24 hours, with some less official testing of an 8 GB model supporting that. It charges quickly, too, powering up to 80 per cent capacity in 90 minutes while hooked up to your computer using the included USB cable. A travel adapter for computer-less charging is sold separately. If you don't mind refurbed merchandise, you can save $80 on a 4GB white refurbished iPod nano at the Apple Store!
The Nano's display is 40 per cent brighter than the first-generation models. Song and album titles are easy to read. You can also view photos and album covers on it, but the screen is small, so don't expect to be able to see every nuance. The new Nano models pack a lot of punch into a small package at a small price.
Some may not say the same for the new iPods. Obviously, the big draw here is the iPod's video capabilityiPod's video capability, something not available in Nanos. The display, though rather small at 6.35 centimetres diagonally, is beautiful, crisp and 60 per cent brighter than its predecessor. However, video images tend to pixelise in areas of low contrast, probably because of the data compression necessary to squeeze video down to iPod size. Videos - such as television episodes of Lost and movies like Pirates of the Caribbean Dead Man's Chest - can be purchased from Apple's iTunes store.

Consumers also can convert their own video into the iPod format using iTunes. Apple revealed this week that a virus had infected a small number of the new video iPods. No doubt Apple will be quick to smooth kinks out of new iPods rolling off the assembly line.
The new iPod's battery life is respectable, at 14 hours for music and 6.5 hours for video on the 30 GB model (it is longer for the 80 GB model). That's still greater than the first video iPods, allowing you to watch more shows and movies. The new Nanos and iPods share a few new features, including the ability to search for songs, artists and albums by letter - helpful when you've got 80 GB of music to browse through. Another addition is gapless playback: no more jarring silence between tracks of albums like Dark Side of the Moon where the songs are meant to blend into each other.
Other features were held over from earlier iterations. Both the Nano and the iPod come with the same four dull games included on earlier models, but better games for the video iPod are available for purchase at The iTunes StoreiTunes. (Sorry Nano users, you're out of luck.) And as with all iPod flavours, you can buy music from iTunes - and only iTunes. Copy-protected tunes from rival music services generally won't work. You can also play files ripped from your CDs using Apple's free iTunes software for Windows and Mac computers. Synching your music library is as simple as plugging in the USB cord.
Some of my favourite features are the simplest: The playback automatically pauses when the earphones are removed from the jack, so you don't miss a moment of music. The clock can keep track of multiple time zones. Perhaps the most pleasant surprise of all is in the earphones. Usually a cheap freebie with other portable audio devices, Apple resisted the temptation to pinch pennies here and instead gave them a complete re-engineering with the new models.
The result is probably the most comfortable set of earphones, and they seem never to fall out. The sound quality is great, too, ratcheting up to teeth-rattling volume with almost no distortion. One small disappointment with the earphones: They are still available only in white. But that complaint is eclipsed by the many things to like about Apple's new iPods. Consumers can feel comfortable laying down their credit card for either one. Another option is the new iPod Shuffle, which Apple is introducing this month. Barely larger than a cufflink, the Shuffle is designed to be worn, with a clip that fastens onto your clothes. It holds only 1 GB of music and has no display, making song selection difficult. But it's attractive for people who intend to use the iPod while jogging or working out.